A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
