Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
